Empires Fall in Silence

The Trump Administration's Isolationism Will End Us with a Whimper Not a Bang

I retired around 3 months ago, just as Trump took office and instituted his “Liberation” policies. As far as I can tell those policies consist of deporting any foreigners he legally can deport, withdrawing from any international engagements he can reasonably disengage from, and threatening other countries with both economic and military punishment until they either pledge vassal-ship to America or declare themselves enemies of America. The idea is to polarize neutral countries into supporting one side or the other and hope the sides shake out in our favor. Many other people have written far better pieces about the specific merits of these policies, so this article will only focus on what I've observed traveling in Asia, Europe, and Latin America for the last few post-election months.

What I've observed so far is: Deafening silence.

Back Then

Back in 2019 I embarked on my first international solo trip. I decided to go with a safe choice and visited Bangkok for an extended 3-week vacation. Bangkok is an amazing city with great public transit, a friendly population that enthusiastically speaks English, and a famously seedy-yet-thriving entertainment industry. Thailand boasts complex and exotic cultural norms as well as a complicated hybrid political system combining monarchy, democracy and military control. It's also mind-blowingly safe making it a great first solo destination.

While Thai people are somewhat restricted (by law) when talking about their own political system, when I told them where I was from - an American from Colorado living in Chicago - they were very happy to ask me about my country. They wanted to know what I thought about Trump and whether he would be reelected. They wanted to hear about Chicago and whether it was worth applying for a precious US tourism visa to visit. They bragged about having been to California, which by their reckoning, was right next to Colorado. They were enthusiastic both in their interrogation of me and in their attempts to show me their country in all of its glory.

For the record, while traveling, I’ve encountered none of the money/green-card-seeking behavior other “helpful” Americans like to warn me about whenever I travel. In Thailand (and most other places I've been) people are mostly just interested in sharing their own opinions and making friends.

I didn't stop traveling after COVID either. I went to Mexico in 2021 and back to Thailand in 2022 as well as to Taiwan and Argentina the same year. Even post COVID, things felt pretty normal. Thai, Mexican, Taiwanese and Argentinean friends all had the same questions for me about Biden and the same interest in cultural exchange.

Now

My post-retirement tour has been to hit up a few old beats and a couple new ones. I've hit Taipei, Bangkok, Koh Samui, Amsterdam, Buenos Aires and Mendoza so far. Santiago, Chile is next. The idea is to fly around the world, touch base with my old friends, pick up a few new ones.

People are still friendly to Americans. This isn't an essay about how America has ruined it's reputation or how people hate us now. That isn’t really the case. Everyone has been very kind to me and it's been pretty easy to pick up where I left off with my friends and to make new ones wherever I land.

However, despite the hospitality, the big change is that absolutely no one has anything to say or ask about America anymore. Given the chaos evident in the American media, there are plenty of questions one could ask. My friends don't have a any. They already know what's going on politically (Argentineans better than anyone) and when I tell new acquaintances that I'm from Colorado, now they nod and change the subject, "What are we eating?"

No one is interested in what 'side' I'm on and no one is planning a trip to the Rocky Mountains, New York, or Chicago in the next 4 years. No one asks any questions either when they hear that I was functionally the acting Director of Product for my department at Twitter (Now X if that's your cup of tea). It used to be quite the conversation starter.

The Future of America

None of this is really a personal complaint. For all of my interest in policy here on Substack, I don't like to talk my personal politics that much. I also don't have anything shocking to add about Rocky Mountain tourism and I’ll likely be just fine in a post-American century. However, I think this response, silence rather than interest, indicates something fundamental and troubling about America's new place in the world.

Three decades ago, America seemed inevitable. Even after the "end-of-the-end of history" in the 2000s, America still seemed to be undeniable (by the numbers). This may not be the case anymore after 3 short months. The reaction to Trump's policies shows that none of America's dominance was by accident. We have been leading the world because we made it that way. We have maintained a self-serving global trade system with our Navy and force of policy - not by some arbitrary anointed status as the world hegemon.

When the American people voted to withdraw from that role with the second election of Donald Trump: the world didn’t collapse or panic - it shrugged, let us leave, and closed the circle behind us. No one has anything to say because when America won't engage with the world, there is nothing to say about it. There is no America-shaped hole to fill. As the era of American dominance ends, people will have to pack up, make their plans, set their new alliances...and quietly move on.